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Confidence Enrichment

The interim nuclear deal with Iran is a step in the right direction. A small step in quantitative terms: Iran will get $7bn over six months; its nuclear programme will be slightly delayed. But it’s a much bigger step in terms of confidence-building. “The interim agreement marks a very important, albeit mostly symbolic, step toward the type of deal that, not so long ago, seemed entirely unimaginable” (Free registration required) (900 words)

Israel’s Airstrikes In Syria

Expert discussion of Israel’s interests and interventions in the Syrian conflict. Assad regime is unlikely to react against Israel’s airstrikes while in the midst of its own civil war — so long as it thinks it can beat the rebels at home. But if the regime fears that it’s losing to the rebels, then the incentive structure flips, and its best hope of survival will come with attacking Israel and trying to provoke an Arab-Israeli war (1,965 words)

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