FiveBooks Interviews

Barry Eichengreen on the Euro

With hindsight, was the euro a good idea? Will it come through the present crisis intact or will any country decide to leave? And what happens if they do? All this and more answered by the economics professor

When we look back 50 years from now, what do you think we’ll say about the whole euro project?

I think we’ll say that it was dangerously premature but ultimately proved workable, and that governments eventually took the difficult steps needed to make it work because they essentially had no choice – because the costs of collapse were prohibitive.

Before we get to the current crisis, let’s start with the history. Your first book, Tony Judt’s Postwar, is an amazing 800-page account of Europe over the last 60 years. What does it bring to the table in terms of understanding the euro?

I thought this book was important for our conversation because in order to understand the euro, one really has to understand how Europeans see their own history. One has to understand the priority that European leaders and the intellectual elite attach to political reconciliation and integration. The book is not about the European economy or the euro per se – although the author understands economics, and monetary economics specifically, perfectly well. What the book does, above all, is to give one a sense of origins of the European project and of the depth of the political commitment to deeper integration, of which the euro is part.

Judt’s book is very good at bringing home the horrific human and economic cost of World War II. Are you arguing that while Europe may be suffering some financial problems right now, the euro will ultimately be held together by something greater?

The idea that European integration is a mechanism for delivering peace and harmony is now deeply ingrained – the fact that the disputes over how best to resolve the euro crisis are creating political tensions and schisms notwithstanding to the contrary. As a result, each time that Europe has reached a crisis and had to decide whether to go forward or go back, it goes forward towards deeper integration. Angela Merkel’s personal preferences notwithstanding, I think she will feel strong pressure to do likewise. It was Jean Monnet, the father of European integration, who once said something to the effect that “Europe will be forged in crises”.

Tell me how your next book, David Marsh’s The Euro: The Politics of the New Global Currency, helps us in terms of understanding the euro.

Marsh’s approach, like Judt’s, is historical. Marsh argues that one can’t understand how the euro came about in 1999 – and I think he would argue, similarly, that one can’t anticipate what will happen next – without recalling Europe’s efforts over the course of the sixties, seventies and eighties to restore and maintain monetary stability. We have to understand the response to recent developments in that context. What I like about Marsh’s book is that, in telling this tale, he reminds us of the importance of human agency. He reminds us that actual individuals with actual lives took actual decisions to create the euro. In the absence of those individuals, things might have turned out very differently.

Most of these personalities – Helmut Kohl, Jacques Delors and so on – are now no longer on the scene. Is that a cause for concern for the future of the euro?

It’s often said that with the rise of a new generation of German leaders who didn’t live through World War II and don’t share the priorities of their predecessors, completing the European house will become more difficult. That’s why the Judt and Marsh books are important. Judt gives you a sense of the deeper historical forces at work, Marsh of how those historical legacies are passed on from generation to generation. All this leads me to question whether the attitudes and actions of future European leaders will really differ from those of their predecessors.

In telling his tale, Marsh emphasises two national traditions – the British and the German. He understands the UK, and he understands Germany. He tells his story by contrasting the attitudes of leaders in these two countries. This strength of his book is also its limitation, however. France features less prominently than it might. And lots of other smaller European countries that had a say in the development of the euro don’t get the attention they deserve. It’s a very heavily Anglo-German-accented account.

Speaking of the Brits, why do they always seem so keen for the euro to fail? Whether it’s coverage by the Daily Telegraph or, recently, a businessman holding a competition for how best to break up the euro, the Brits seem to love the idea that the euro was a mistake. Is it just a childish feeling of being left out?

While euroscepticism may seem like an affectation, it is really a deep-seated aspect of British culture as I see it. Britain has always had one foot in Europe and one outside, and the fact that the British economy both benefits from the single market and also suffers from the euro crisis only reinforces the feeling that Britain is attempting to ride two horses at the same time (not a comfortable position). Many Brits would prefer a minimalist Europe – a glorified free trade area – to a monetary union that created a need for fiscal union that in turn created a need for political union. So now that the euro project has gone badly wrong, there is a temptation to twist the knife.

The next book you’ve chosen is by Peter Hall and David Soskice, Varieties of Capitalism.

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About Barry Eichengreen

Barry Eichengreen is the George C Pardee and Helen N Pardee Professor of Economics and Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. He is President of the Economic History Association in the 2010-11 academic year.

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