Prehistoric Blue

The Prehistoric Psychopath

John Halstead & Phil Thomson | Works In Progress | 13th March 2025

New research reveals that hunter gatherers were considerably less violent than previously believed, despite lacking the modern state apparatus for managing violence: no code of law, no judges, no police. This upends Hobbesian beliefs that human nature is innately warlike and that our ancestors were perennially in a state of conflict. “Nomadic foragers rarely glorify the warrior” (6,300 words)

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The Blue Bus Paradox

Adam Kucharski | Understanding The Unseen | 17th March 2025

Suppose a pedestrian gets hit by a bus, but cannot recall the colour of the bus responsible. The pedestrian sues the Blue Bus Company, as they own 75% of the buses in town, and the odds are high it was one of their buses. Should the pedestrian win? “If we were to let baseline probabilities dictate verdicts, we’d risk punishing the likely without evidence — instead of proving who was guilty” (1,100 words)